Monthly Archive: December 2017

Tax bill’s evisceration of individual mandate will shrink, bifurcate non-group market

Reforms of the non-group market aimed at revitalizing it as it faced the death spiral of adverse selection at the start of the decade have reached a turning point. A major tax reform bill almost certain to be signed into law this month effectively cancels out one of three foundational elements designed to rescue the market contained in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act: the tax penalty levied on households that go “bare” without medical coverage.

The Affordable Care Act reforms effectively force buyers and sellers together to sustain a functional non-group market. Plan issuers must accept everyone applying for coverage without medical underwriting. On the buyer side, the thinking was the penalty would provide incentive to purchase an individual plan, with the segment acting as a residual market for those without access to other forms of coverage. In retrospect, turns out the incentive wasn’t strong enough, particularly to improve the spread of risk by creating a diversified risk pool of young and old and those in good and ill health. Many households found the tax penalty the superior option over purchasing coverage, eroding the intended effect of strengthening the market and ensuring a good spread of risk.

Zeroing out the tax penalty as the pending tax bill does would not collapse non-group into a rapid adverse selection death spiral, accounting to the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO projects the negation of the tax penalty will cut the estimated 15 million Americans in the individual market by one third by 2027. Nevertheless, the CBO said, the segment “would continue to be stable in almost all areas of the country throughout the coming decade.” In other words, a shrunken but not a fatally crippled market over the near term.

Going forward, a couple of factors not addressed in the CBO analysis could further downsize the non-group segment:

  • The exit of households earning in excess of 400 percent of federal poverty and therefore ineligible for premium subsidies offered though state health benefit exchanges, particularly for family plans and for individuals aged 50 to 64. Premium rates are already considered out of reach for many of these households. According to the CBO analysis, premiums will continue to rise by 10 percent a year over the next 10 years. The CBO analysis notes non-enforcement of the tax penalty would help drive the increases as healthier people would be less likely to obtain insurance, requiring plan issuers to make up the lost premium revenue by raising rates.
  • The replacement of Affordable Care Act compliant individual plans with short term plans. In October, the Trump administration directed three federal agencies to consider new regulations or guidance that would expand the availability of short term policies beyond the current 90 day limit. If short term policies are defined as up to 12 versus three months and be renewable for another year, they would offer a medically underwritten, lower cost alternative to those who can pass underwriting standards. That would reintroduce medical risk selection mostly barred by the Affordable Care Act, which permits premium rating based only on age, location, family size and tobacco use. According to  Modern Healthcare, at least two plan issuers – UnitedHealth and Aetna – are looking into issuing short term plans, potentially offering covered benefits on a par with individual plans. That would create a bifurcated non-group market rather than the single state risk pooling under the Affordable Care Act’s reforms and has raised concerns among stakeholders and state regulators according to Modern Healthcare.
 


Need a speaker or webinar presenter on the Affordable Care Act and the outlook for health care reform? Contact Pilot Healthcare Strategies Principal Fred Pilot by email fpilot@pilothealthstrategies.com or call 530-295-1473. 

Issuer churn continues among non-group plans despite ACA’s statewide risk pooling

Cyndee Weston has navigated the shifting ground better than many. For years she has had the same insurer — BlueCross BlueShield of Oklahoma — which has dominated that state’s market for individual plans and is the only marketplace player for 2018. But even though the carrier is the same and the health law requires insurers to take all comers, canceled plans each year force her to learn a new coverage design, file new paperwork with doctors and worry her primary physician will be dropped from the network.

Source: Churning, Confusion And Disruption — The Dark Side Of Marketplace Coverage | California Healthline

Before the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act’s non-group market reforms took effect in 2014, plan issuers frequently shut down plans, placing them in runoff mode once the pool quality declined too much and they fell into the adverse selection death spiral. It appears however the pattern nevertheless continues even with the Affordable Care Act’s requirement that all non-group risk be pooled into single statewide risk pools, making it tough on plan members seeking stability.

 


Need a speaker or webinar presenter on the Affordable Care Act and the outlook for health care reform? Contact Pilot Healthcare Strategies Principal Fred Pilot by email fpilot@pilothealthstrategies.com or call 530-295-1473. 

Rising medical costs undermine America’s largest coverage silo: Employer-sponsored medical benefit plans.

But the longer-term risk for job-based coverage is the inability of most employers — despite their power as the largest purchasers of health care services — to stem rising health care costs. Though some very large employers that run their own health insurance plans, like Comcast and Boeing, show considerable sophistication in managing their workers’ health care bills, they are the exceptions.

Faced with these structural handicaps, employers trying to limit their exposure to health care costs fall back on a simple strategy: shifting more of those costs to their employees. That winds up increasing the number of Americans with employer-sponsored health plans who are underinsured. The Commonwealth Fund survey found that underinsured adults reported health care access and medical bill problems at nearly the same rates as adults who lacked coverage for part of the year.

Increasing underinsurance among working families should raise alarm bells for policymakers and advocates both for and against increased government involvement in health care. If employer-sponsored health insurance continues to become less and less adequate over time — and we have every reason to believe it will — the discontent of middle-class working Americans with the cost of their health care will inevitably increase.

Source: The Decline of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance – The Commonwealth Fund

Employer-sponsored medical coverage covers as many Americans as Medicare, Medicaid and the non-group individual market combined. As such, it’s the biggest coverage silo of the nation’s multifaceted scheme to cover the costs of medical care.

According to this Commonwealth Fund analysis, the structural integrity and long term viability of that largest and traditionally quite generous of coverage silos is under enormous stress from the ever growing cost of medical care. Another appearing today in Health Affairs warns that rising medical care costs could reduce commercial medical insurance, including employer plans.

Those cost pressures could cause it to tip over. If it topples, the analysis accurately observes, it would create an environment where a wider expansion of government plans beyond Medicare and Medicaid becomes more politically possible, even probable. It could spark a consolidation of the four big coverage silos into one or two. History appears poised to turn a page over the next decade.

 


Need a speaker or webinar presenter on the Affordable Care Act and the outlook for health care reform? Contact Pilot Healthcare Strategies Principal Fred Pilot by email fpilot@pilothealthstrategies.com or call 530-295-1473. 

Analysis: Non-group market faces adverse selection failure starting in thinly populated states with repeal of ACA individual mandate

The Senate Republican plan to use tax legislation to repeal the federal requirement that Americans have health coverage threatens to derail insurance markets in conservative, rural swaths of the country, according to a Los Angeles Times data analysis.That could leave consumers in these regions — including most or all of Alaska, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada and Wyoming, as well as parts of many other states — with either no options for coverage or health plans that are prohibitively expensive.

Source: Republicans’ latest plan to repeal Obamacare’s insurance requirement could wreak havoc in some very red states – LA Times

A New York Times analysis finds repeal of the individual mandate would spur sales of medically underwritten and rescindable short term plans with narrower coverage benefits than mandated for non-group plans by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act — particularly if an executive order issued by President Donald Trump in October that would extend the current three month term limit on such policies to one year is fully implemented.

According to this article from The Hill, state regulators are worried if this plays out, non-group markets could fall into an adverse selection death spiral and collapse.

 


Need a speaker or webinar presenter on the Affordable Care Act and the outlook for health care reform? Contact Pilot Healthcare Strategies Principal Fred Pilot by email fpilot@pilothealthstrategies.com or call 530-295-1473. 

%d bloggers like this: