Individual and small group health insurance markets will be the ultimate deciders of whether the Affordable Care Act’s market reforms and exchange marketplaces make coverage more affordable and valuable. Their experience over 2014 and 2015 will serve as a litmus test.
A major determinant of premium affordability will be a state’s ability to create large and diverse pools of individuals and small employers that enable payers to spread risk. Beginning in January, 2014, the ACA establishes two pools: one comprised of individuals and families and another made up of small employers. The size of those pools is naturally a function of a given state’s population and the heft of those pools has an impact on premiums. Large states like California have a natural advantage in creating sizable risk pools better able to spread out the cost of medical care. Accordingly, California has opted to leverage the market power of its population to actively negotiate with health plans over terms of coverage and rates for plans sold on its health exchange marketplace, Covered California. Smaller, less populated states, however, don’t have the law of large numbers on their side.
The Affordable Care Act appears to recognize this circumstance and has built in mechanisms that would enable smaller states to create larger, more robust risk pools:
- Section 1312(c)(3) allows states to combine their individual and small employer markets into a single risk pool;
- Section 1331(b)(3)(B) authorizes states to negotiate regional compacts with other states to cover low income individuals not eligible for Medicaid in “standardized health plans.” (The federal Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has held off issuing regulations for these plans until at least 2015);
- Section 1333(a) provides a mechanism for health insurers and plans to pool risk and sell across state lines via “health care choice compacts” starting in January, 2016. Two or more states could enter into an agreement under which health plans could be offered in state individual markets, subject to regulation by the state in which the plan was written or issued, provided plans comply with the other states’ rules regarding market conduct, unfair trade practices, network adequacy, and consumer protection standards including standards relating to rating and handling of disputed claims. (The statute requires HHS issue regulations governing health care choice compacts by July 1, 2013);
- In addition to authorizing interstate plans, the ACA also appears to contemplate such plans being marketed in multiple state exchange marketplaces. Section 1311(f) allows state exchanges to combine into “regional or other interstate exchanges,” subject to approval by the participating states and HHS.
Given the large number of states where HHS will fully or partially operate exchanges, it’s possible the federal government will press the affected states to exercise some of these options to create larger purchasing pools in order to gain greater bargaining power with payers.
Need a speaker or webinar presenter on the Affordable Care Act and the outlook for health care reform? Contact Pilot Healthcare Strategies Principal Fred Pilot by email