The 10 best-performing states – which include several large states such as Florida, North Carolina, and California — have collectively signed up 59% of the potential market. While that might appear to leave room for substantial further growth, there are reasons to believe that enrollment has close to plateaued in those states. The potential market includes people who are buying their own coverage outside the marketplaces, many of whom do not qualify for subsidies. The experience so far is that the vast majority (82%) of marketplaces enrollees are receiving premium subsidies, while people who are ineligible for subsidies typically buy coverage on the outside market. In fact, we estimate that in the top-performing states the number of people who have selected a plan and qualified for a subsidy represents more than 90% of subsidy-eligible people. This is a very high take-up rate for a public program, suggesting there is very little potential for growth in these states. The only way enrollment could grow substantially is to attract people not eligible for subsidies who are already buying their own coverage directly.
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There are signs that marketplace coverage could continue to grow modestly in the years ahead. But, absent a substantial boost in outreach or changes to the subsidies to make insurance more affordable, substantial increases in marketplace enrollment are unlikely.
Need a speaker or webinar presenter on the Affordable Care Act and the outlook for health care reform? Contact Pilot Healthcare Strategies Principal Fred Pilot by email