A growing number of Minnesotans are tapping tax credits through the health law that discount premium costs on the policies. But eligibility for subsidies depends on income, and there’s growing evidence that those who don’t qualify for tax credits or have other affordability problems are fleeing the market. On Thursday, the Minnesota Council of Health Plans released numbers that show 80,000 fewer residents covered in the individual market now than a year ago, a decline of 30 percent. The current tally of 190,000 will likely drop further, insurers say.A shrinking market is a bigger problem for insurers than a drop in revenue. People with costly health problems tend to maintain even expensive coverage, knowing it’s a better deal than paying the full cost of health care. So, a shrinking market at a time of skyrocketing premiums leads insurers to conclude that healthy people are leaving the mix.
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aims to improve the spread of risk and honor the law of large numbers — bedrock principles that underpin all forms of insurance — by pooling most everyone not covered in the three main pillars of health coverage (Medicare, Medicaid, employer-sponsored coverage) into a single risk pool in each state. But even putting everyone in a given state into a single, statewide risk pool may not be enough in states with fewer residents as this account illustrates. When there are too few “covered lives” in the pool in insurance industry lingo, the risk spreading mechanism of insurance gets stressed and the pool threatened by adverse selection. That occurs when a relatively small number of people incur large claims costs as the case here in Minnesota.
Since the individual market is comprised of only a relatively small segment of the population nationwide given the dominance of the big three pillars of health coverage, honoring fundamental insurance axioms may only be possible in states with large populations such as California, New York, Texas and Pennsylvania.
Need a speaker or webinar presenter on the Affordable Care Act and the outlook for health care reform? Contact Pilot Healthcare Strategies Principal Fred Pilot by email