UnitedHealth Group’s announcement this week that it’s reassessing its participation in state health benefit exchange markets for plan year 2017 cites deteriorating loss experience and increased risk. There’s another factor not mentioned by UnitedHealth that warrants discussion and analysis.
For plan years 2014-2016, health plan issuers participating in state exchanges are shielded from losses by a triple safety net built into the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act known as premium stabilization programs. The three programs were put in place recognizing health plan issuers had no prior experience calculating premiums using new community rated statewide risk pools put in place by the law. Also, there’s the expectation that people who were previously medically uninsured are likelier to come with pent up needs for medical care and thus be costly to cover. The programs include:
- Risk corridors, which level losses among health plan issuers so that issuers with lower than expected claims make payments to plans with higher than expected claims;
- Reinsurance, which essentially insures health plan issuers when a covered individual’s medical costs exceed a set dollar amount and;
- Risk adjustment, which like risk corridors also levels the field among health plan issuers by taking money from plan issuers with lower-risk enrollees and transferring it to plan issuers with higher-risk enrollees.
The first safety net, risk corridors, developed a huge hole out of the box and faces an uncertain future. The federal government announced this year that due to federal budget cuts in the program and higher than expected claims, health plan issuers would receive just 12.6 percent of what they requested for plan year 2014 claims experience.
Come plan year 2017, both risk corridors and the reinsurance programs expire, leaving only one safety net intact: risk adjustment. By placing expiration dates on two of the programs, the Affordable Care Act implies the exchange marketplace is expected to have achieved a degree of financial stability after three years of operations. UnitedHealth Group’s announcement suggests the company isn’t so confident. That said, it could opt to remain in more populous states such as California where there are more “covered lives” in the exchange marketplace. With a greater number of enrollees, the insurance principle works to naturally spread the risk of losses and is less dependent on the premium stabilization programs to keep the market financially viable.
Meanwhile, Aetna and Anthem reacted to the UnitedHealth development by emphasizing their commitment to the exchanges. Anthem is “continuing our dialogue with policymakers and regulators regarding how we can improve the stability of the individual market,” Chief Executive Officer Joseph Swedish said in a statement. Aetna has slightly pared back the number of state exchanges that it will offer plans in 2016 (15 versus 17), according to this Forbes item by Bruce Japsen.
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